‘We are waiting with bated breath’: Super El Niño forecast could make 2027 hottest year on record, BoM says

A map showing the development of El Niño in the tropical Pacific. Red areas are where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average. Illustration: Bureau of Meteorology View image in fullscreen A map showing the development of El Niño in the tropical Pacific. Red areas are where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average. Illustration: Bureau of Meteorology ‘We are waiting with bated breath’: Super El Niño forecast could make 2027 hottest year on record, BoM says Most Australian capital cities have at least 80% chance of unusually warm and dry spring as climatologists watch developing system with increasing alarm Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast The El Niño climate phenomenon linked to record global temperatures and now locked in place in the Pacific Ocean could develop into the strongest on record, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. Climatologists are watching the strengthening El Niño with increasing alarm , saying the forecasts from climate models in the coming months are “mind blowing” and “astounding”. Globally, experts have said a strong El Niño could work in tandem with global heating to deliver the hottest year on record either this year or, more likely, in 2027. The bureau has stressed that the strength of an El Niño does not necessarily correlate with the strength of impacts in Australia, but the system generally brings hotter and drier conditions in winter and spring for southern and eastern parts. The climate phenomenon is characterised by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with the subsequent atmospheric upset fuelling more severe storms in some parts of the world and hot, dry conditions in others. Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email A major indicator of the strength of an El Niño is the sea surface temperatures in one area of the equatorial Pacific – known as Niño 3.4. Dr Zhi-Weng Chua, a senior climatologist at the bureau, said the highest reliable temperature value for previous El Niños was a monthly average of +2.6C seen in that Pacific region in January 1983. But he said climate models were suggesting this El Niño could peak between +2.2C and above +3C. Oceans have been absorbing the world’s extra heat. But there’s a huge payback Read more “There is a realistic chance that the peak anomaly of this event will rank in the top events, with a chance it could rank as the highest. It is remarkable, and it shows just how much heat there is in the ocean. “It’s perhaps not a surprise, given climate change and how oceans have been gathering heat in the last few decades.” The bureau’s own model has the El Niño peaking at about +3.3C with the phenomenon staying in place until at least the coming summer. Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, reviewed 14 different seasonal model forecasts of the Niño 3.4 region from around the world. “It looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest eve