One Nation’s rise puts the next election in ‘unknown territory’ – but does Pauline Hanson really have a path to government?

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will likely have to win three-quarters of the upper house seats in outer metropolitan and rural and regional areas to attain government, a pollster says. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP View image in fullscreen Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will likely have to win three-quarters of the upper house seats in outer metropolitan and rural and regional areas to attain government, a pollster says. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP One Nation’s rise puts the next election in ‘unknown territory’ – but does Pauline Hanson really have a path to government? Data shows the rightwing party faces an obstacle in the form of urban seats – and the effect of preference flows is harder to predict Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast One Nation’s spectacular rise from a distant 6% of the vote in the last election to first or second in some recent polls has upended Australian politics . It has also made it a lot harder to predict what exactly will happen at the next election. Traditionally, pollsters and election experts would look at how preferences flowed in previous elections when estimating two-party preferred numbers, or translating polling into seat projections. This was fairly predictable when almost every seat would come down to a contest between Labor and the Coalition. But, given the rise of One Nation , we are now in “unknown territory”, says George Hasanakos, head of research at DemosAu. A graph showing the dramatic rise in support for One Nation since the last election, climbing above the Coalition to sit level with Labor In last year’s federal election, One Nation was one of the final two candidates in only two seats and made it to the final three in just 26 seats. But the numbers in DemosAu’s big MRP poll in March suggest that, on current numbers, a One Nation candidate would make it into the final three in well over 100 seats. Liberal frontbencher Dan Tehan says coalition with One Nation ‘not even being talked about’ Read more Pauline Hanson has said she has the ability to do the job of prime minister, and has considered running for the House of Representatives in 2028. Despite this, One Nation may still have a serious impediment to taking government: inner metropolitan electorates. Hasanakos notes that One Nation is still doing poorly in these seats. This means the party will likely have to win three-quarters of the 107 seats in outer metropolitan and rural and regional areas to attain government. A bar chart showing the number of seats in rural/regional areas (62), in outer metropolitan areas (45) and inner metropolitan (43) One Nation has had a steady rise to the top of the polls since getting just over 6% of the vote in last year’s election. In May and June this year, the party was getting primary vote shares in the high 20s and low 30s in polling, slipping slightly behind Labor in a couple of recent polls from Redbridge and Newspoll. Nevertheless, this is a huge shift. For those trying to figure out how it tr