BoM forecasts strong El Niño and warns climate change could amplify effects on Australia

The Bureau of Meteorology says forecasts point to a strong or very strong El Niño event although that would not ‘necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia’s climate’. Photograph: George Chan/AAP View image in fullscreen The Bureau of Meteorology says forecasts point to a strong or very strong El Niño event although that would not ‘necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia’s climate’. Photograph: George Chan/AAP BoM forecasts strong El Niño and warns climate change could amplify effects on Australia El Niño events linked with extreme weather around the world – and can increase risk of bushfires in Australia and coral bleaching on Great Barrier Reef Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast The Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared an El Niño – the phenomenon linked to hotter and drier conditions for Australia – is now locked in place in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The bureau warned climate change would amplify the effects on Australia, including the risk of extreme heat and bushfires. In an update, the bureau said El Niño was now “underway in the tropical Pacific” because the atmosphere was now reacting to the higher than average sea surface temperatures. ‘Something is changing’: Sydney records warmest run of June days in more than a century Read more The east to west trade winds were weakening and pressure and cloud patterns were consistent with El Niño, the BoM said. Forecasts were pointing to a strong or very strong event, the bureau said, adding the strength did not “necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia’s climate”. Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email The strength of El Niño events are gauged by sea surface temperatures in a specific region of the tropical Pacific and how much hotter they are than the long-term average. The bureau said past El Niño events had coincided with lower winter and spring rainfall, particularly in Australia’s eastern half, higher daytime temperatures in the south and an increased frost risk because of clearer skies. “However, in a warming climate, past patterns are less reliable as a predictor of future impacts,” the bureau said. El Niño events are linked with extreme weather around the world and, for Australia, can increase the risk of bushfires and coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef. Felicity Gamble, the bureau’s technical lead for extended prediction, said: “We have to keep in mind that we are in unprecedented conditions because of the global heat [in the oceans].” She said the rise in ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific had been “rapid” in recent months and the bureau had been waiting to confirm the atmosphere had responded. “We see this event emerge in a world that is 1.5C hotter, and we are likely to see unprecedented temperatures in our oceans. “Climate change will amplify those impacts that we anticipate, such as heat and fires. We are on the back of some reasonable rainfall in recent months s