Almost 145,000 Australians will lose support for autism under NDIS reforms, documents reveal

The government hopes a ‘functional capacity test’ will reduce NDIS claimants by 241,000 by 2031. Photograph: Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images View image in fullscreen The government hopes a ‘functional capacity test’ will reduce NDIS claimants by 241,000 by 2031. Photograph: Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images Almost 145,000 Australians will lose support for autism under NDIS reforms, documents reveal Internal estimates show 144,600 people will be taken off the scheme by 2030, many of them under 18 Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast Almost 145,000 Australians receiving support for autism on the national disability insurance scheme (NDIS) are expected to be removed by the end of the decade, internal estimates show, as the federal government moves ahead with plans to narrow the focus of the “diluted” $52bn scheme toward those with significant and complex needs. From 2028, almost two-thirds of the 241,000 participants set to lose access to the NDIS will be aged 18 or under, health department documents released to Guardian Australia under freedom of information laws show. The NDIS has given Joe vital social skills. Funding cuts leave his mother fearing how he will ‘do life’ Read more The changes are part of the Albanese government’s endeavour to get the NDIS “back on track” financially and are expected to pass when parliament returns next month despite fierce criticism from advocates and politicians. The government estimates the $52bn-a-year scheme will more than double in cost to $117bn a year in a decade’s time without intervention. People with autism are the fastest-growing cohort of the NDIS, making up 42% of the entire scheme. The majority (68%) of autistic participants who were given access to the scheme in the quarter ending in December 2025 were under 14. The health department expects 241,000 NDIS participants will eventually be shifted off the scheme by June 2031 following the introduction of the functional capacity test, to keep the number of participants at about 600,000. During that period, an additional 105,000 will be stopped from entering the scheme. The eligibility changes, among other proposals, are expected to reduce the scheme’s growth rate to just below 2% over the next four years – a significant drop from its peak of 23% in 2021-22. Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email Of the 241,000 no longer eligible for the NDIS in five years under the changes, 60%, or 144,600, will have autism or developmental delays listed as their primary disability, an internal executive brief within the health department showed. Sixty-four percent, or 154,240, will be aged 18 and under. When asked by Guardian Australia if there were any planned programs for teenage Australians with autism, a government spokesperson did not address the question directly. “Some of the people no longer eligible for the NDIS may be well supported by community and mainstream services, and others through new foundational supports,” the spokesperson sai