5 turning points that explain MAGA's civil war

For nearly a decade, MAGA and Donald Trump were synonymous.Today, the movement's most consequential fights are unfolding beyond the control of its term-limited president — empowering rival factions to shape MAGA in their own image.Why it matters: MAGA entered the year with a sheen of invincibility, riding the high of Trump's victory and united in his promise of a new "Golden Age." It's ending 2025 locked in an existential war over the future of conservatism.How we got here: Five moments over the past year help explain how MAGA arrived at this point.1. America's "mediocrity" culture: The first clear sign of trouble came last Christmas, when a debate over high-skilled H-1B visas pitted the "America First" base against Elon Musk and Trump's new allies in Silicon Valley.DOGE adviser Vivek Ramaswamy was castigated online after arguing American culture had "venerated mediocrity over excellence," and that the U.S. needed to recruit top global talent to stay competitive.The tech vs. MAGA clash — which featured a wave of anti-Indian racism — marked the opening salvo in a broader conflict over whether "America First" should be defined more by economic or cultural nationalism.2. U.S. bombs Iran: MAGA's deepest foreign-policy divide burst into the open in June, when the U.S. joined Israel in bombing Iranian nuclear facilities.The strikes split MAGA between pro-Israel factions that cheered Trump's show of strength, and isolationists — led by Tucker Carlson — who warned the U.S. was being dragged into another Middle East war.Though the conflict only lasted 12 days, Trump's intervention — paired with the brutality of the war in Gaza — accelerated the rise of explicitly anti-Israel and antisemitic rhetoric inside parts of MAGA.3. The Epstein files: The Justice Department triggered a months-long backlash by releasing a memo in July that concluded notorious sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein died by suicide in prison and had no "client list."Trump's repeated attempts to move on from Epstein shattered expectations — stoked for years by MAGA influencers — that he would expose a hidden network of elite corruption and pedophilia.Congress eventually mandated the release of the Epstein files — defying an intense Trump pressure campaign that culminated in the shock resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).4. Charlie Kirk's assassination: The killing of Turning Point USA's founder in September shook the nation and removed MAGA's most effective coalition manager at a critical moment.For years, Kirk had served as a rare bridge between factions — giving institutional conservatives, hardline populists and fringe figures a shared stage while keeping disputes largely contained.Conspiracy theories from Candace Owens — including claims that Israel played a role in Kirk's assassination and that Turning Point staff participated in a cover-up — have ignited personal and poisonous new feuds.5. Tucker Carlson interviews Nick Fuentes: The year's most explosive rupture came in November, when Carlson gave a friendly, uncritical platform to Fuentes — a white nationalist and Holocaust denier.The 27-year-old Fuentes was already skyrocketing in popularity, particularly among young men, but Carlson's interview vaulted him to the center of MAGA's debate over Israel, antisemitism and extremism.The fallout continues a month later: More than a dozen senior officials departed the Heritage Foundation for former Vice President Mike Pence's think tank after Heritage President Kevin Roberts defended Carlson.Zoom in: The consequences of this yearlong unraveling came into sharp focus at Turning Point's annual "AmericaFest" this past weekend, where the most powerful players in MAGA media traded vicious attacks before a crowd of 30,000.Vice President Vance used his keynote address to urge restraint and unity — arguing that "we have far more important work to do than canceling each other.""President Trump did not build the greatest coalition in politics by running his supporters through endless, self-defeating purity tests," Vance said, stopping short of addressing the feuds or warring parties directly.Between the lines: Vance dominated the AmFest straw poll for the 2028 GOP nomination, winning 84% of the vote and the full backing of the Turning Point machine. Still, his power as a unifying force remains untested.Pro-Israel conservatives see Vance's refusal to draw lines as tacitly enabling the Carlson wing. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), a critic of Vance's foreign policy views, is considering a rival 2028 campaign.Fuentes sympathizers, meanwhile, see Vance as illegitimate because of his interracial marriage and ties to Big Tech. The far-right faction is loud online, but lacks the institutional backing or electoral machinery to shape MAGA's post-Trump future.The bottom line: Instead of bridging MAGA's divides, AmericaFest underscored how fractured the movement has become — and how little appetite there is, on either flank, for compromise.