Climate experts say spring is coming earlier. How will that affect agriculture and ecosystems?

As a row crop farmer in St. Joseph, Missouri, Joe Lau said he’s noticing more extreme weather these days. Warmer seasons throughout the year. Quarter-inch predictions of rain stamped out by storms that bring 3 inches. Increased pressure from pests on his corn. He’s also noticed that spring is coming earlier. The USA National Phenology Network shows that this year spring arrived three to five weeks earlier than the average between 1991 to 2020 in much of the central U.S. and two to three weeks earlier in southern Midwest states. “I have allergies bad,” said Lau, who also grows soybeans. “And this year in particular, it’s hit me hard. It’s wild that we are talking about allergy issues in winter, but that’s technically the reality of it.” Grist thanks its sponsors. Become one . To support our nonprofit environmental journalism, please consider disabling your ad-blocker to allow ads on Grist. Here's How Last month, Climate Central, a nonprofit specializing in communicating climate science, published an analysis that found that spring is trending to an earlier arrival from 1981 to 2025 in most of the United States. Climate Central On average, leaves now emerge six days earlier than they did in 1981 in 88 percent, or 212 out of 242, of major U.S. cities. For example, in Lau’s city of St. Joseph, Missouri, the spring leaves tend to arrive two days earlier. An earlier spring could have consequences for the agriculture industry, ecology, and more. Where are spring leaves arriving earlier? Climate Central used open-access data that was collected by the USA National Phenology Network, a group of volunteers and researchers who study seasonal events — like when migratory birds arrive, leaves emerge, and fruit ripens — among plants and animals to determine ecosystem health. Grist thanks its sponsors. Become one . To support our nonprofit environmental journalism, please consider disabling your ad-blocker to allow ads on Grist. Here's How The analysis is based on the NPN’s first leaf index maps , which use models to predict the start of spring. To work, the models are fed data like temperature and the start date of the annual “leaf-out” — when leaves first emerge — for the early spring plants of lilacs and honeysuckle, which are found throughout the U.S. “That very leading edge of spring is drifting earlier and has drifted, in some cases, a whole lot earlier in just that last few decades,” said Theresa Crimmins, the NPN’s director, in a briefing last month. Farmer Joe Lau stands in front of his field of soybeans in St. Joseph, Missouri. Lau says earlier springs have not affected his production negatively, but he worries about pests on his crops. Héctor Alejandro Arzate Climate Central’s analysis found that many Mississippi River basin cities are seeing earlier spring, including Hazard, Kentucky, which is seeing leaves arrive 11 days earlier. Both Memphis, Tennessee, and St. Louis, Missouri, are leafing out seven days earlier. New Orleans, Louisiana, is two days