Where Trump has lost support with independents, according to AP-NORC polling

By — Linley Sanders, Associated Press Linley Sanders, Associated Press Leave your feedback Share Copy URL https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/where-trump-has-lost-support-with-independents-according-to-ap-norc-polling Email Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Tumblr Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Where Trump has lost support with independents, according to AP-NORC polling Politics Jun 12, 2026 3:15 PM EDT WASHINGTON (AP) — Independents have grown increasingly unhappy with President Donald Trump during his second term, a new AP-NORC polling analysis finds, particularly those without a college degree. The analysis from researchers at The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that while about half of independents without a college education had a positive view of Trump around the 2024 election, his approval with that group fell to about one-quarter this spring. That shift has erased the large education gap that existed among independents in the months before Trump took office for his second term, with independents now holding similarly negative views of the president regardless of their level of education. Educate your inbox Subscribe to Here’s the Deal, our politics newsletter for analysis you won’t find anywhere else. The analysis was conducted by aggregating nearly two dozen AP-NORC polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026, allowing for a deeper look at how support for Trump changed during several distinct periods, including the last six months of 2024, the first 100 days of Trump's presidency, the summer of 2025 when the Big Beautiful Bill passed, last fall's government shutdown and the beginning of the Iran war. The compiled polling shows a steady decline among independents throughout Trump's second term. His standing has also dropped among several small but important groups that moved toward him in the 2024 presidential election, including Black and Hispanic independents. READ MORE: About 2 in 3 Americans blame Trump for rising gas prices More Americans than ever consider themselves independents, and they are among the groups that shifted toward Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Any erosion in that support could signal trouble for Trump and Republicans headed into the midterm elections, which are often seen as reflection of how voters feel about their governing party. WATCH: New poll shows growing number of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of Iran war Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC who co-authored the analysis, noted that while Democrats' and Republicans' views of Trump have held largely steady in his second term, independents' opinions are still moving. "Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support," he said. Dramatic declines during Trump's first 100 days Trump's return to the White House was fueled, in part, by independent voters who saw him as the stronger candidate on key issues like the economy. The new analysis