Tactical voting by Greens and Lib Dems could be key to Labour victory in Makerfield

Makerfield prepares to go to the polls in Thursday’s byelection. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images View image in fullscreen Makerfield prepares to go to the polls in Thursday’s byelection. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images Tactical voting by Greens and Lib Dems could be key to Labour victory in Makerfield Left-leaning voters more willing to back Andy Burnham than Restore supporters are to vote Reform UK politics live – latest updates Tactical voting could be fundamental to a Labour victory in Makerfield, with Green and Liberal Democrat supporters willing to back Andy Burnham to stop Reform UK from winning. Conversely, Reform’s main competitor for votes on the right is Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party. Polling experts have said current data suggests the size of their vote share is roughly similar to Labour’s poll lead. But while left-leaning voters were willing to lend their vote to Burnham, Restore Britain voters appeared to be less willing to support Robert Kenyon, Reform’s candidate. The Guardian also found Green voters in the constituency were willing to back Burnham , while recent polling by Opinium found that more than half of those who said they would vote Green or Lib Dem in a general election, “if it was held tomorrow”, were planning to vote for Burnham in the byelection. Who are the key figures around Andy Burnham and how could they fit in government? Read more In contrast, the polling found that only about a third of those who said they would vote Restore in a general election were willing to switch their vote. At the last general election, in July 2024, the Lib Dems won 7% of the vote, and the Greens 4.5%, which combined is significantly more than Andy Burnham’s narrow poll lead. In May’s council election in Wigan, the Greens won 10.5% and Lib Dems 3.5%. Voting intention for the byelection gives figures of less than 1% and less than 2% respectively. View image in fullscreen Andy Burnham on the campaign trail. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images In contrast, the polling for Opinium put Restore on 6.5%, having not stood in either the general election or the Wigan council elections. Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, said: “In Makerfield, all of the other parties are so far out of contention that the tactical logic here is stark. “You’re not going to get a Green MP in Makerfield, you’re not going to get a Lib Dem MP in Makerfield,” he said. “So it’s really obvious what you’ve got to do.” Burnham “clearly is popular” in Manchester, “so I’d have to say on balance, polling, context of the race, nature of the candidates, you’d think it’s advantage Andy at this point,” he added. “But not in the bag by any means.” On the Restore side, Ford said: “Their campaign is like the opposite of tactical voting. “It is explicitly focused on splitting off Reform voters and mobilising people who are really far right and discontented with Reform.” He said: “The tactical voting logic i