Reform byelection campaign risks a replay of the Johnson error

A protester holding an anti-Farage placard outside the Houses of Parliament in London. Photograph: Vuk Valcic/Sopa Images/Shutterstock View image in fullscreen A protester holding an anti-Farage placard outside the Houses of Parliament in London. Photograph: Vuk Valcic/Sopa Images/Shutterstock Analysis Reform byelection campaign risks a replay of the Johnson error Peter Walker and Rowena Mason In triggering an entirely optional byelection, Nigel Farage has given opponents weeks to repeat the claims about his finances To some, Nigel Farage appears to be in a trap of his own making, fighting for re-election in single combat with a giant bin before potentially having to do it all again against the other political parties. But inside Reform UK, the mood is upbeat. As one insider said of the prospect of a double byelection: “Bring it on.” This is not just braggadocio. Farage is an enthusiastic and highly skilled campaigner, and is clearly relishing the idea of going to his electorate with a “Clacton versus the establishment” message, although doing so twice within weeks might test even his commitment – especially when the Reform UK leader is forced to argue that the establishment is embodied by an anthropomorphised bin. There is, nonetheless, an inescapable sense of strategy being devised on the hoof, with the party’s idea of getting ahead of a forced byelection swiftly undermined by unexpected events. According to two Reform officials, Farage had been expecting the standards commissioner, who is examining whether he should have declared the £5m gift revealed by the Guardian, to report back this week. A highly critical verdict was anticipated, as was a lengthy Commons suspension. This might well have triggered a byelection via the so-called recall petition process. Farage’s pre-emptive resignation and re-standing, announced on Tuesday, was meant to be a way to seize the initiative. The first surprise came when the commissioner informed Farage that the investigation was being widened to look into allegations in the Sunday Times that he had received other undeclared assistance , from the long-term Reform ally and convicted fraudster George Cottrell. The decision to call the byelection was made days in advance, before that development was known. Despite the circumstances changing, Farage decided to press ahead. One Reform insider said it “did not appear to have been entirely well thought through”. The other surprise, of course, was the very swift decision by every major party to not stand, leaving Farage to contest a heatwave byelection in which the best outcome would be a decisive victory against a candidate pretending to be a space alien with a bin for a head. In an interview on the campaign trail with the Daily Mail – thus far the election strategy appears to be “friendly media only” – Farage admitted he had not seen this coming. “No, of course not,” he said, when asked if it had occurred to him that all the other parties would boycott the byelection.