El Nino is here. It'll be big, bad and costly, scientists fear

By — Seth Borenstein, Associated Press Seth Borenstein, Associated Press Leave your feedback Share Copy URL https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/el-nino-is-here-itll-be-big-bad-and-costly-scientists-fear Email Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Tumblr Share on Facebook Share on Twitter El Nino is here. It'll be big, bad and costly, scientists fear Science Jun 11, 2026 2:04 PM EDT WASHINGTON (AP) — El Nino, Nature's chaotic climate agent, has formed in a warmed-up Pacific Ocean and is expected to grow to historic strength, meteorologists announced Thursday. Experts said the El Nino, a natural warming cycle, should further heat a globe already warming from fossil fuel pollution and will likely turbocharge extreme weather across the planet. Meteorologists forecast it will rival — or exceed — a record El Nino that began in 1997 and helped trigger billions of dollars in damage from heat waves, floods, droughts, tornadoes and wildfires. READ MORE: What is El Niño and how could it affect weather this year? The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially confirmed the existence of the El Nino, which is a warming of the Pacific near the equator that affects weather patterns across the globe. NOAA's announcement said there's a 63% chance that the El Nino will get so intense this late fall and early winter that it "would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950." Grow your mind Subscribe to our Science Newsletter to explore the wide worlds of science, health and technology. The warm, deep waters of an El Nino affect weather patterns by bringing "a lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world," said Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier. She said, especially in the Pacific, "it can get dire very quickly." WATCH: NOAA forecasts milder Atlantic hurricane season thanks to El Nino United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described El Nino as an "urgent climate warning." "El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," Guterres said in a video message. El Nino's impacts spawn winners and losers Bathers enjoy a summer day due to the high temperatures at Agua Dulce beach in the Chorrillos district, in Lima, Peru, on February 25, 2024. File photo by Sebastian Castaneda/ Reuters The weather pattern's effects vary by region. El Nino often dampens — but doesn't eliminate — Atlantic hurricane season activity, but increases it in the Pacific. So while the U.S. East and Gulf coasts may get a break, Hawaii and other islands are more in danger, Frazier said. The drought-stricken Middle East could benefit, climate scientists said. Other places are looking at more danger. Parts of western South America — where the first El Ninos were noticed decades ago — often get heavy rain and floods, along with an extra warm summer. India faces more intense heat waves, while drought, wildfires and heat threaten Australia. Northeaster