As Russia’s assault continues, Ukraine’s politics shift and an old alliance begins to fray

There is no respite for Ukrainians as the war drags into into its fifth year. Photograph: Ukrinform/Shutterstock View image in fullscreen There is no respite for Ukrainians as the war drags into into its fifth year. Photograph: Ukrinform/Shutterstock As Russia’s assault continues, Ukraine’s politics shift and an old alliance begins to fray Beneath the ​drone strikes and ​talk of ceasefires lies a battle over history that is testing ​Kyiv’s chances for an end to the conflict Don’t get This Is Europe delivered to your inbox? Sign up here I ’ve just come back from a trip to Kyiv, where after more than four years of war, it can feel like the political and diplomatic news agenda has become cyclical: a suggestion that some kind of peace deal could be around the corner, followed by the swift intervention of reality that the Kremlin has no interest in abandoning its maximalist goals, and we all go back to the drawing board. We are now in a period where Russia has again stepped up its air attacks on the Ukrainian capital. Frequent mass drone and missile attacks keep Kyiv residents awake, and some even get through to the city centre, whereas in the past Ukrainian air defences were usually able to repel them. Nights can be noisy and scary: one attack while I was there killed 27 people. Thousands head into the metro to get some sleep. So what are the chances that Putin’s planned three-day war will finally come to an end in its fifth year? All of Donald Trump’s attempts to bring it to a close have failed, and these efforts have been somewhat muted over past months as Washington turned its attention to the Middle East. But the theme is again hanging in the air in Kyiv, and there is now cautious optimism in some quarters that late autumn this year might provide a possible window for some kind of a deal . Ukraine is keen to avoid another winter at war, and Vladimir Putin finds himself under pressure from Kyiv’s campaign of spectacular long-range drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure . Others are more sceptical, pointing to Putin’s recent aggressive rhetoric and suggesting it’s much more likely that Moscow will double down than seek agreement. Domestically, political life is hotting up, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy about to reshuffle the government yet again, and rumours that he could seek a renewed mandate in a presidential election, which might swiftly follow some kind of ceasefire. As usual, when these discussions surface there are more questions than answers: even if there was a ceasefire, how would voting be organised for frontline communities, for Ukrainians living under Russian occupation and for the millions of refugees abroad? Who would stand against Zelenskyy, and is a real political contest possible in the circumstances? Tensions between allies View image in fullscreen Volodymyr Zelenskyy is walking a fine line between history and diplomacy. Photograph: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP If these debates are familiar to those who have been following the war in Uk