Is the Iran ceasefire over? What the latest US attacks tell us

A billboard showing Ayatollahs Khomeini and Khamenei on a street in Tehran, Iran. Photograph: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA View image in fullscreen A billboard showing Ayatollahs Khomeini and Khamenei on a street in Tehran, Iran. Photograph: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA Is the Iran ceasefire over? What the latest US attacks tell us A wave of US strikes represent the gravest test yet of the fragile truce. Here’s what happened, what officials are saying and whether the deal can survive Middle East crisis – live updates The US has launched a wave of strikes across southern Iran for a second consecutive day. Although there have been several breaches since a ceasefire was agreed between the two sides in April, the attacks this week – launched after the downing of a US helicopter over the strait of Hormuz – represent the most serious and extensive breakdown of the truce to date. The US president, Donald Trump, has raised the prospect of further attacks on the country, while his defence secretary, Pete Hegseth , has told reporters if strikes “have to happen [Friday] night, they will be strong and they will be clear”. 1. Is the ceasefire over? US officials have sought to play down the significance of the attacks in a series of media briefings this week, while claiming that the ceasefire remains in place and that wider negotiations with Iran have not been affected. The Wall Street Journal reported that, after authorising the latest attacks, Trump instructed aides to deliver a message to Iran via Qatar that the strikes did not signal a “restart of all-out war” and were solely a response to the helicopter downing. “Nothing changes where the deal stands right now,” another White House official told Politico . “There’s a military bucket and then there’s a negotiation bucket … so, two things can happen at the same time.” Brett McGurk, who held senior national security positions in the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, noted that the US had clearly telegraphed to Iran that another attack was coming on Thursday. “What they’re trying to do is manage that escalation … to say to Iran: ‘We’re going to respond, this is coming, but this is not a restart of the campaign we started in February’,” he said. For weeks, Trump has claimed that a deal to bring a permanent end to the conflict is close and that he has gone out of his way to avoid a return to all-out war. But the president is grappling with plummeting approval ratings, as the conflict has proved deeply unpopular at home. View image in fullscreen Israeli settlers look at a fallen rocket in the West Bank city of Jericho. Photograph: Ilia Yefimovich/AFP/Getty Images Meanwhile, despite claiming on Wednesday to “love” inflation, a third consecutive monthly rise in prices is weighing on Trump and his Republican party in the run-up to the midterm elections. Yet despite repeated claims that a deal with Iran is imminent, significant differences remain between the two sides. Restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear programme, the unf