What does 1-0 win mean for Scotland's chances of qualification?

By Scott Mullen BBC Sport Scotland at Boston Stadium Published 1 hour ago Scotland fans are no strangers to pondering permutations. But the stakes are much, much higher at a World Cup finals. What would a point here mean? What if we lose that one? Might our rivals drop points elsewhere? The conversations will already have started, in that most Scottish of ways. Win your first World Cup game in 36 years, immediately think you'll probably lose the next two, and wonder if you're out or not already. That's the spirit. After the opening round of matches, Scotland sit top of Group C, Brazil and Morocco trailing in their wake. But what chance of a first ever progression out of a major tournament group stage? To play this video you need to enable JavaScript in your browser. This video can not be played Figure caption, McGinn fires Scotland to first World Cup win for 36 years Would three points be enough for last 32? Everyone had this down as a must-win. Purely based on the belief Scotland were likely aiming to be one of the best eight third-placed teams from the 12 groups. Sitting top of the section was not something many would have imagined, though. But first let's start of with the doomsday scenario. Scotland lose to both Morocco and Brazil and manage to finish third. Then it comes down to goal difference. With the win in Boston by just a single goal, Steve Clarke's side now arithmetically can't finish on three points with anything other than a negative goal difference. According to Football Meets Data , external , a goal difference of -1 offers an 87.5% chance of progression, which would be a reality if the Scots lost by a single goal in their final two games. That drops to 69.4% with a -2 difference, and 47.3% at -3. You get the picture. Scotland earn nervy win over Haiti for first World Cup victory in 36 years Why Haiti v Scotland was antidote to the ills of world football Published 1 hour ago McGinn 'beaming with pride' - and hopes kids around Scotland are too Published 3 hours ago This is where Scotland's ineffective attack could prove costly. They had an xG (expected goals) at the Boston Stadium of 1.05. Aside from John McGinn's goal and Scott McTominay hitting the post, that was about it. Often the set-piece deliveries were poor - which results in a set play xG of 0 - with the saving grace being Scotland's defence stood up well to some fraught pressure to keep a clean sheet. Another goal against Haiti could have meant finishing on a goal difference of zero was possible, which would have brought a 96% of progression. "Winning games at major tournaments isn't something Scotland do regularly," said former Scotland talisman James McFadden on BBC Scotland. "The resilience shown - that's what has been forged in this group. It wasn't enjoyable but I would have taken an ugly 1-0 win beforehand. "The next two games are going to be tough, but they have dealt with the pressure of this game." To play this video you need to enable JavaScript in your browser.