What two new market moves say about U.S. rare earth minerals

Data: Financial Modeling Prep; Chart: Axios VisualsThe outlook for U.S. rare earth materials production got brighter on two fronts on Thursday, if market moves are any indication. Why it matters: China currently dominates production and processing of rare earths used in defense systems, wind turbines, EVs, electronics and more. Catch up quick: The Defense Department is making billions of dollars worth of investments and business commitments to MP Materials, which operates California's Mountain Pass mine.It's buying $400 million worth of preferred stock for a 15% stake, making it the firm's largest shareholder.It's also helping finance new mineral separation capabilities and supporting a new magnet factory in Texas. The deal includes 10-year offtake agreements and price floors.Driving the news: Meanwhile, Ramaco Resources' share price surged 31% Thursday after a Fluor study showed the technical viability and attractive economics of extracting rare earths from Brook Mine, a coal site in Wyoming.Energy Secretary Chris Wright is scheduled to attend a ribbon-cutting at the project Friday.Behind the scenes: Ramaco Resources CEO Randall Atkins hinted at work with the Pentagon in an interview with Bloomberg. "We have not entered into direct talks with the Defense Department, but we certainly have had indirect outreaches in both directions," he said.The big picture: The MP deal signals a Trump 2.0 appetite for aggressively using industrial policy to bolster rare earth access — even as trade talks with China include loosing its export restrictions.Still, MP Materials is casting it as a public-private partnership, with telling CEO James Litinsky telling CNBC that "this is not a nationalization ... we still control our company."MP Materials' stock soared 51% Thursday on news of the deal and is up 176% on the year.What we're watching: Arnab Datta, an industrial policy analyst who has written on ways to counter China's dominance, gave the MP deal a mixed review in a lengthy X thread.He praised it for "expanding the toolkit" through equity, lending, price floors and more, and the "enduring" 10-year commitment. But he also laid out risks and concerns, like future Defense Department appropriations if complications emerge with the project.