‘Woefully unprepared’: extreme heat will double US hospitalizations by 2040, study finds

Paramedics from Phoenix fire station 18 transport a resident to the hospital during a heat wave in Phoenix, Arizona, on 20 July 2023. Photograph: Caitlin O'Hara/Bloomberg via Getty Images View image in fullscreen Paramedics from Phoenix fire station 18 transport a resident to the hospital during a heat wave in Phoenix, Arizona, on 20 July 2023. Photograph: Caitlin O'Hara/Bloomberg via Getty Images ‘Woefully unprepared’: extreme heat will double US hospitalizations by 2040, study finds Sharp rise in hospital visits will in turn drive up annual healthcare costs for heat-related conditions to over $1bn People in the US are poised to endure another summer of unusually ferocious heat and there will be little respite in the years ahead, with a new study finding that the coming 15 years could see a doubling in hospitalizations due to heat-related illnesses. The number of annual heat-related emergency department visits or hospitalizations across the US are set to rise from about 109,000 cases a year to as many as 237,000 cases by 2040, the new research has estimated. This, in turn, will almost double annual healthcare costs for heat-related conditions to more than $1bn, the new paper, published in the American Geophysical Union journal GeoHealth , found . Severe heat kills more people in the US each year than all other extreme weather events combined, with deaths surging by more than 50% over the past two decades. Illnesses and deaths are most likely among poorer people who are unable to afford to run air conditioning, work outside for prolonged hours, live in houses badly designed for high temperatures or have exacerbating health conditions. Already this year, the US has experienced its hottest ever March on record, with this summer expected to have above-average temperatures and potentially widespread wildfires , part of a longer-term trend of rising heat caused by the climate crisis. A string of punishingly hot summers, particularly in places not used to such conditions, is likely to heap new challenges upon public health systems, the researchers warned. “There is this staggering cost to society we are going to see over the next 15 years,” said Vivek Shandas, a professor at Portland State University and study co-author. “It’s not that we will see this plateau of heat-related illnesses and we will get acclimated to it – there is going to be this sustained increase. “Heat is an amplifying event and so if you are already struggling with a pre-existing condition, there’s a good chance it will lead to some sort illness like heatstroke or even death.” The new research looked at 53 of the US’s largest metropolitan areas and projected heat-related illnesses from now until 2040 under a range of different scenarios for levels of planet-heating emissions, caused by the burning off fossil fuels. Shandas and his co-author, Stephan Brown of CAPA Strategies, found that the impact of hospitalizations will not fall evenly, with the California and Las Vegas areas set t