The games that show the flaws in a 48-team World Cup

Image source, Getty Images Image caption, It takes 72 games to reduce the number of teams at the World Cup from 48 to 32 By Dale Johnson Football issues correspondent Published 20 minutes ago The World Cup has, so far, lacked an element of real jeopardy in the group stage. Granted, South Korea may disagree after a shock 1-0 defeat by South Africa on Wednesday sent Bafana Bafana into the knockout stage for the first time. But it is limited peril, because South Korea are still very likely to reach the last 32 as one of the eight best third-placed teams. A record of three points and goal difference of -1 is probably going to be enough. But had the defeat by South Africa happened at the 2022 World Cup, when only the top two teams in each group qualified, South Korea would already be on the plane home. The addition of third-placed qualifiers is a necessary feature of this new format - to ensure we get 32 teams in the knockout rounds. But it has created additional scenarios in which teams can play for specific results to either qualify or, in effect, pick opponents. Two matches in particular this week will be a real test of the format. Could teams play out convenient draw? Expanding the World Cup to 48 teams always presented one obvious problem - it was an imperfect number for a tournament. With 32 teams, the maths was simple - eight groups of four teams, with the top two going through to a last 16, then quarter-finals, semi-finals and a final. By adding another 16 nations, Fifa had to find a way to get to a symmetrical knockout stage. There was no ideal solution - one which preserved the intensity of the previous format. The original plan was to create 16 groups of three teams. The two top in each would go through to the last 16. But there was an issue. Three-team groups meant individual fixtures - and those in the final match would know exactly what they needed to do to qualify. Nations could play for specific results to secure their passage to the knockout rounds. Fifa, after all, knew all about alleged collusion from the scandal at the 1982 World Cup . Back then, with groups of four, teams did not play their final group matches at the same time. West Germany faced Austria in the standalone last game. A slender win for the Germans would send both teams through at the expense of Algeria. The match finished 1-0 to West Germany. Algeria went out. Fifa changed the format so all final fixtures would be played simultaneously, but that would not have been possible with three-team groups. The climax to the group stage in Qatar was so exciting that Fifa had a rethink. It accepted there must be 12 four-team groups and two matches would be played at the same time to determine who would qualify. Except for one crucial difference - something that removed much of the jeopardy that made the last World Cup so gripping. Eight of the third-placed teams must go through for there to be 32 teams in the knockout rounds. It became harder to be knocked out than to progress