In Nigel Farage’s shoes, a less experienced politician might panic

Nigel Farage outside a polling station during the Makerfield byelection on 18 June. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images View image in fullscreen Nigel Farage outside a polling station during the Makerfield byelection on 18 June. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images Analysis In Nigel Farage’s shoes, a less experienced politician might panic Peter Walker Senior political correspondent Makerfield shows the challenges Reform is facing, from Restore and tactical voting to questions over that £5m gift As those around Nigel Farage are fond of pointing out, Reform UK has now led in more than 300 consecutive national polls. When it comes to byelections, though, it is fair to say the party’s results are more mixed. Yes, Robert Kenyon came second in Makerfield to a popular regional mayor backed by a Labour campaign so relentless that the main risk was annoying voters by knocking too often on their doors. Kenyon also increased his and Reform’s share of the vote from the 2024 general election. This, though, was a seat so demographically Reform-friendly that some pundits warned Andy Burnham was taking a big risk using it as his vehicle for a return to Westminster. In that context, as Farage himself said on Friday morning, Makerfield was a disappointment. The larger danger is that it could become a trend. Of the five byelections held since the general election in 2024, Reform has only won a single seat, last year in Runcorn and Helsby – and that by precisely six votes. The two byelections held in Scotland on Thursday were never on Farage’s agenda. But Makerfield comes four months after Reform also came a distant second in Gorton and Denton , that time to the Greens. Both seats are in Greater Manchester, if politically and demographically very different. But they arguably contain some of the same lessons for Reform, including the importance of selecting the right candidate. In Gorton and Denton, the party put its faith in Matthew Goodwin, a former academic who is very popular in hard-right social media circles but whose often peevish and prickly demeanour and St Albans vowels contrasted with the cheery positivity of the Green candidate – now MP – Hannah Spencer, a local plumber. For Makerfield, the choice seemed easy. Kenyon is also a plumber, also local, and had even been an army reservist. The problem for Reform was that he had also been a hugely prolific online poster . Journalists and activists for other parties pored over his X accounts, plus comments on a now-defunct rugby league message board, finding scepticism for vaccines, strong support for Donald Trump and – most damaging of all – some excruciatingly crude comments about women. As well as openly saying he was a sexist and calling abortion “cowardly”, Kenyon was very publicly called out by Carol Vorderman after it emerged he had emphatically endorsed another poster’s lewd remarks about her, an incident Reform insiders acknowledged had put off a number of female voters. Another lesson is how Reform is vulnera