‘Hugely significant’: biggest ever byelection will test nation’s mood – and Burnham’s credentials

Bev Craig, the leader of Manchester city council, is running for mayor in the byelection on 30 July. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian View image in fullscreen Bev Craig, the leader of Manchester city council, is running for mayor in the byelection on 30 July. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian ‘Hugely significant’: biggest ever byelection will test nation’s mood – and Burnham’s credentials With 2 million people eligible to vote, Manchester mayoralty race will give clues on whether PM-in-waiting can turn tide against Reform UK UK politics live – latest updates Andy Burnham was delivered to the steps of Downing Street after one of the most consequential parliamentary byelections in recent British history. But it is the race to be his successor as Greater Manchester mayor that could reveal far more about the mood of the nation than the historic – and unique – contest in Makerfield. More than 2 million people will be eligible to vote on 30 July, making it the biggest ever byelection in Britain. Even with a turnout of about 30%, the verdict of more than 600,000 voters will help answer some of the most fundamental questions facing each of the major parties. Will Keir Starmer’s resignation resurrect Labour from the doldrums of the May elections? Or can Nigel Farage give Burnham a bloody nose just 10 days into his likely premiership? The so-called “king of the north” never won less than 60% of the vote in each of his three victories since 2017, when he swapped Westminster for the newly created mayoralty. This time, however, Burnham is not on the ballot paper and Reform UK was the biggest winner in Greater Manchester just seven weeks ago, gaining 106 councillors and wiping out Labour strongholds in Wigan, Tameside and Rochdale. Yet Farage has suffered two humiliating defeats in parliamentary byelections in this corner of England – losses made worse by the rapid rise of Rupert Lowe’s hardline Restore Britain. And the Reform UK leader appears increasingly embattled as he is dogged by questions about the £5m donation from the crypto tycoon Christopher Harborne and growing scrutiny of his wealth. View image in fullscreen Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green party of England and Wales, with a supporter at the campaign launch for Geraldine Coggins. Photograph: Rachel Adams/LNP On the opposite end of the political spectrum, the Green party is vying to turn its recent Manchester success into its first big seat of power in British politics. Can Zack Polanski’s party show that victories in Gorton and Denton and the local elections were not just an anti-Starmer protest vote? “This byelection is hugely significant on lots of levels,” said Luke Tryl, the executive director of the More in Common thinktank. “Andy Burnham’s premiership would get off to quite a bad start if Labour lost. It’s England’s second city and so who runs it has huge significance because it elevates them on to the national stage.” The prize is the most powerful mayoralty out