Gulf shares concerns with US as Iran’s influence and power continue by proxy

Houthis in Yemen receive support from Iran which, under the US deal, should cease. Photograph: Yahya Arhab/EPA View image in fullscreen Houthis in Yemen receive support from Iran which, under the US deal, should cease. Photograph: Yahya Arhab/EPA Analysis Gulf shares concerns with US as Iran’s influence and power continue by proxy Jason Burke in Jerusalem Analysts and western leaders believe Iran will increase support of militia groups despite deal between US and Iran As Marco Rubio ended his brief visit to the Middle East on Friday, he sought to cast in the best possible light his discussions with leaders of the Gulf states. Those leaders are deeply anxious that the deal agreed earlier this month between Iran and the US fails to address their worries about continued Iranian efforts to project power and influence throughout the region. “They’ve shared with us some very concrete concerns,” the US secretary of state admitted, and insisted that any definitive agreement will require Tehran to not only restrict its nuclear programme but also halt its support of Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, militia in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. But analysts and western security officials believe Iran is likely to increase its support for such groups after the conflict, which confirmed much of Tehran’s existing strategic thinking. The activities of irregular fighters funded and armed by Israel and, to a lesser extent, the US too, is also likely to intensify, they say. Hezbollah remains the mainstay of Iran’s coalition of allied groups and proxies around the Middle East, despite suffering badly in prolonged clashes with Israel in 2024 and 2025. The militant Islamist organisation also manifestly failed in its primary strategic role for Iran: to deter an Israeli direct strike. But Tehran remains committed to Hezbollah, which was founded in Lebanon with the support of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps more than 40 years ago. “The Iranians see this as a temporary bad phase and believe Hezbollah will regenerate … It is absolutely vital for the Revolutionary Guards to rebuild their proxies around the region and to control their decisions,” said Hanin Ghaddar, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. By making the ceasefire between Iran and the US dependent on an end to fighting in Lebanon too, Iran has caused significant tensions between Israel, which wants to push forward with its offensive against Hezbollah, and Washington. The Houthis in Yemen, which also have close ties to Tehran, only joined the recent conflict in its last days but demonstrated their ability to target Israel – though do little harm – and to threaten international shipping through the Red Sea. They remain more independent of their main sponsors, however. “The [Houthis] are very hardcore and were useful during the war but … have their own decision-making processes that don’t involve the Iranians,” said Ghaddar. View image in fullscreen Explosions on a bulk carr