Choppy waters ahead as Iceland gets ready for its own EU referendum

Waves breaking around a trawler off the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland. Photograph: David Noton Photography/Alamy View image in fullscreen Waves breaking around a trawler off the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland. Photograph: David Noton Photography/Alamy Choppy waters ahead as Iceland gets ready for its own EU referendum In this week’s newsletter: After Trump’s interventions over Greenland, there are many in Iceland who believe they would be stronger in the EU. But will its recent history of independence win out? Don’t get This Is Europe delivered to your inbox? Sign up here As the UK marks the tenth anniversary of its fateful Brexit referendum next Tuesday, Iceland is fast approaching its moment of truth about the EU – albeit from the opposite direction. On 29 August, Icelanders will be asked whether or not to they want to come back to the table with Brussels for negotiations about joining the EU. Iceland originally applied in 2009 after the financial crash, but pulled out of talks in 2013 saying it couldn’t go any further without a referendum. Now, after more than a decade on hold, membership talks are back on the agenda. When I met Iceland’s youngest ever prime minister, Kristrún Frostadóttir, last year she said she expected a referendum in 2027 as a “ necessary step forward ”. But that was before Donald Trump’s threats to invade Iceland’s closest neighbour Greenland. Iceland’s government, no doubt driven by the sudden geopolitical focus on the Arctic, announced that the referendum would be brought forward. While fear of invasion by a US president who appears to have difficulties distinguishing between Iceland and Greenland, has convinced some Icelanders of the need to join the EU, the island is divided. And on both sides of the debate, Brexit has become a watchword. For the pro-EU camp, British Leave campaign misinformation and the sense that the UK hasn’t exactly flourished since its exit from the EU are evidence for why the Nordic country should do the opposite. “I am fearing that we will face a Brexit moment,” Iceland’s pro-European foreign minister, Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, told me recently, referring to the disputed claims used by the leave campaign in Britain for how much money the UK sent to the EU. Brexit, she said, “should be an example of how not to run a campaign.” In the Eurosceptic camp the UK’s struggles to leave on its terms are presented as very good reasons not to join. “The EU wanted to make Britain’s departure as painful as possible,” Haraldur Ólafsson, from anti-EU group Heimssýn, told the Reykjavík Grapevine . “What is lost in one day can take many hundreds of years to get back.” ‘The loudest voices are probably the most extreme’ View image in fullscreen Iceland’s pro-European foreign minister, Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, pictured in 2025. Photograph: Thomas Traasdahl/Reuters While public debate over the issue is starting to gather momentum, polls show that the pro-EU campaign has a lot of work to do to convince vote