Chaos and confusion bring US no closer to resolution on strait of Hormuz

Donald Trump proposed the US could charge tolls for clearing the strait of Hormuz, then swiftly abandoned the suggestion. Photograph: Andrew Thomas/CNP/Andrew Thomas - CNP/Shutterstock View image in fullscreen Donald Trump proposed the US could charge tolls for clearing the strait of Hormuz, then swiftly abandoned the suggestion. Photograph: Andrew Thomas/CNP/Andrew Thomas - CNP/Shutterstock Analysis Chaos and confusion bring US no closer to resolution on strait of Hormuz Patrick Wintour Five months of U-turns and false boasts leave Donald Trump in worse position than when he started Donald Trump has taken the war with Iran into a new, murkier phase as the two sides move further and further from the vague memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on 17 June. And as during the opening phase of the conflict, the US leader’s objectives and methods are clouded in confusion, daily U-turns and boasts that within hours are revealed to be false. Washington’s short-term aim is clear enough – to regain control of the strait of Hormuz from Iran – and the president seems willing to extend the bombing campaign from beyond Iran’s southern shores to achieve this. But the resumed fighting is also likely to push oil prices towards $90 a barrel, potentially taking Trump closer to defeats at the US midterm elections that could bequeath him a final two years as a lame, if angry, duck. In a sign of the strategic chaos, Trump proposed – then almost immediately abandoned – a suggestion that the US could charge tolls for clearing the strait, leaving it unclear if Washington had any vision for the future of the waterway. Many workable alternatives are available, including models based on the strait of Malacca or the Bosphorus and Dardanelles model, both of which have been discussed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Iran and Oman – the two littoral states – are willing to engage on these, but so derelict is the Washington policymaking machinery that the US has no proposal of its own to offer. In briefings on Tuesday, the White House insisted that the 20% US toll first announced by Trump the day before was a serious plan, claiming the president had been considering the proposal for a long time. Hours later, however, the product of Trump’s extensive cogitations was jettisoned after the scale of the revolt from shipping firms, members of his own administration and the region became apparent. That ever such an idea was even proposed is deeply embarrassing, since so many European leaders (and US officials) were on record saying freedom of navigation was a cornerstone of the rules-based order and a pillar of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, had previously argued that tolls were not compatible with international law. View image in fullscreen The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, previously argued tolls were incompatible with international law. Photograph: Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters Only last week the 40-strong IMO co