Blackouts, hyperinflation, dissent: Iran considers perilous prospect of peace

The Iranian president has been repeatedly warning of hard times ahead, and the need to maintain social cohesion. Photograph: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA View image in fullscreen The Iranian president has been repeatedly warning of hard times ahead, and the need to maintain social cohesion. Photograph: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA Blackouts, hyperinflation, dissent: Iran considers perilous prospect of peace Conditions that led to bloody prewar protests have been made worse, commentators say Iran is already preparing for the perilous transition from wartime unity to a fractious peace marked by hyperinflation, a 10% contraction in the economy, power cuts and calls for a triumphalist government to end its unprecedented hunting down of dissent. With peace not yet secured, the debates within the regime about Iran’s future are only just starting to emerge but its rulers are clearly thinking about how after surviving the war, they can survive the peace. Open discussions on channels such as Azad are heard on alternative future postwar directions for the country. There are advocates of greater openness, and others such as Saeed Ajorlou, close to the Iranian negotiating team, who say, now the myth of a weak Iran has been shattered in western minds, the country must seek development through autonomy. Hezbollah rejects Israel-Lebanon truce as Trump scrambles to end Iran war Read more Much will depend on whether Donald Trump is really willing to lift the economic blockade on Iran by reducing sanctions and ending asset freezes, but few Iranian economists think the relief will be more than a small fraction of the estimated $270bn (£200bn) losses inflicted on the economy including its infrastructure, schools, energy, steelworks and housing. Iranian commentators such as Fuad Habibi, a sociology professor at the University of Kurdistan, are wary of terms such as social collapse but are very open that the conditions that led to the bloody protests in January have not been solved, and indeed made worse by war. He said: “Economic crises and livelihood dissatisfaction have clearly increased, even without precise statistics. We are witnessing a rare increase in prices due to the naval blockade and the consequences of the war. The internet blockade has also led to direct or indirect unemployment of at least 2 million. “Since we do not have a society in which protests are expressed through official channels such as parties, guilds and unions, you will always be surprised.” The current so-called cohesion is due to the existence of an external factor because, in the face of bombing and destruction by an enemy, internal solidarity is created. But as Hegel said, the moment a front wins is the moment a split begins within it. If a deal does happen to end the war, the Iranian economy would enter peacetime facing food inflation at its highest since the second world war, with the annual food inflation in May at 130% according to the Statistical Centre of Iran. Inflation for meat and chick